Posted by
Terry Paulson on Friday, March 19, 2010 1:35:40 PM
It’s clear that locking up politicians in Washington until
they eventually vote leaves them subject to the beltway fumes that disconnect
them from reality. They are on the verge of passing a rule change that will
allow them to pass a reconciliation healthcare bill and change 1/6th of our
economy in a way that will surely increase government control and intrusion
into your life and drastically increase the deficit that future generations
will face.
Ah,
but what about the CBO cost estimates that Democrats are saying will save us
money and give more Americans expanded healthcare coverage. Even CBO Director Doug
Elmendorf knows that the CBO numbers reported are VERY
preliminary. In his blog post yesterday, Mr. Elmendorf writes: “Although
CBO completed a preliminary review of legislative language prior to its
release, the agency has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal to
verify its consistency with the previous draft. This estimate is therefore
preliminary, pending a review of the language of the reconciliation proposal,
as well as further review and refinement of the budgetary projections.” What a
comforting disclaimer until you actually take note of the CBO’s track record of
making sound cost projections.
A quick Google search unearthed a documented report from
Freedom
Works’ Matthew Clemente. Let me summarize the findings on
government’s ability to project the cost of their lavish entitlements from this
Freedom Works December 14, 2009 post:
•
When Medicare was instituted in 1965, there was no Congressional Budget
Office. Instead, in 1967 House Ways and Means analysts predicted it would
cost $12 billion in 1990. They were wrong—by a staggering factor of 10
with actual spending topping $110 billion. Medicare costs continue to skyrocket
growing by 10%. So if the CBO estimate for the Senate health care bill is off
by the same percentage, then the price of reform may be as high as $7.74
trillion.
•
In 1965, the House Ways and Means Committee estimated that Medicare Part A, the
hospital insurance part of the Medicare program, would cost $9 billion in 1990.
The actual cost of Part A in 1990 was $67 billion. The government estimate was
off by 165%. If the CBO estimate for the Senate health care bill is off
by the same percentage, then the price of reform may be as high as $2.24
trillion.
•
In 1988, the projected 1993 cost of the Medicare Home Care Benefit was $4
billion. The actual 1993 cost was $10 billion, off by 150%. If the CBO
estimate for the Senate health care bill is off by the same percentage, then
the price of reform may be as high as $2.1 trillion.
•
When the Social Security Act of 1935 was being debated in Congress, the cost
projections for the program extended all the way to 1980. At that time,
it was estimated that the federal government would pay out $4 billion in Social
Security payments in 1980. In reality, it paid out a staggering $108 billion;
estimates were off a massive 2,600%. If the CBO estimate for the Senate
health care bill is off by the same percentage, then the price of reform may be
as high as $22.89 trillion.
Where is the responsible reporting on the poor track record
of predicting the cost of any government entitlement. They couldn’t even
predict the simple financial impact of the Cash for Clunkers program. What
gives you or any American confidence that they can do better with the
complexity of this massive plan?
No matter what happens in the vote in Washington this week,
the fight for the future of America is far from over. This assault on our
freedoms will be a rallying cry and a wakeup call for more Americans. The
battle is just beginning! The cost of losing is too much for future
generations. We must fight this to our last breath.