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March Madness Is Alive and Well in Congress

It’s clear that locking up politicians in Washington until they eventually vote leaves them subject to the beltway fumes that disconnect them from reality. They are on the verge of passing a rule change that will allow them to pass a reconciliation healthcare bill and change 1/6th of our economy in a way that will surely increase government control and intrusion into your life and drastically increase the deficit that future generations will face.

Ah, but what about the CBO cost estimates that Democrats are saying will save us money and give more Americans expanded healthcare coverage. Even CBO Director Doug Elmendorf knows that the CBO numbers reported are VERY preliminary. In his blog post yesterday, Mr. Elmendorf writes: “Although CBO completed a preliminary review of legislative language prior to its release, the agency has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal to verify its consistency with the previous draft. This estimate is therefore preliminary, pending a review of the language of the reconciliation proposal, as well as further review and refinement of the budgetary projections.” What a comforting disclaimer until you actually take note of the CBO’s track record of making sound cost projections.

A quick Google search unearthed a documented report from Freedom Works’ Matthew Clemente. Let me summarize the findings on government’s ability to project the cost of their lavish entitlements from this Freedom Works December 14, 2009 post:

• When Medicare was instituted in 1965, there was no Congressional Budget Office. Instead, in 1967 House Ways and Means analysts predicted it would cost $12 billion in 1990. They were wrong—by a staggering factor of 10 with actual spending topping $110 billion. Medicare costs continue to skyrocket growing by 10%. So if the CBO estimate for the Senate health care bill is off by the same percentage, then the price of reform may be as high as $7.74 trillion.

• In 1965, the House Ways and Means Committee estimated that Medicare Part A, the hospital insurance part of the Medicare program, would cost $9 billion in 1990. The actual cost of Part A in 1990 was $67 billion. The government estimate was off by 165%. If the CBO estimate for the Senate health care bill is off by the same percentage, then the price of reform may be as high as $2.24 trillion.

• In 1988, the projected 1993 cost of the Medicare Home Care Benefit was $4 billion. The actual 1993 cost was $10 billion, off by 150%. If the CBO estimate for the Senate health care bill is off by the same percentage, then the price of reform may be as high as $2.1 trillion.

• When the Social Security Act of 1935 was being debated in Congress, the cost projections for the program extended all the way to 1980. At that time, it was estimated that the federal government would pay out $4 billion in Social Security payments in 1980. In reality, it paid out a staggering $108 billion; estimates were off a massive 2,600%. If the CBO estimate for the Senate health care bill is off by the same percentage, then the price of reform may be as high as $22.89 trillion.

Where is the responsible reporting on the poor track record of predicting the cost of any government entitlement. They couldn’t even predict the simple financial impact of the Cash for Clunkers program. What gives you or any American confidence that they can do better with the complexity of this massive plan?

No matter what happens in the vote in Washington this week, the fight for the future of America is far from over. This assault on our freedoms will be a rallying cry and a wakeup call for more Americans. The battle is just beginning! The cost of losing is too much for future generations. We must fight this to our last breath.

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